What you’ll learn
Compare experimental and theoretical probability.
Key idea
Finite trial frequencies can vary from a model; exact agreement also does not prove the generating mechanism.
Finite equality does not prove fairness, and finite discrepancy alone does not prove unfairness; keep model and empirical record separate.
Worked example
Enter the exact value or ordered values in the format requested below.
Spinner model has 4 equal sectors,1favorable. Observed 38 successes in 160 independent spins. Enter experimental probability minus theoretical probability as an exact signed number.
- Equal-sector model is 1/4=1/4; observed frequency is 38/160=19/80.
- Signed observed-minus-model difference is 19/80-1/4=-1/80; finite equality or discrepancy alone is not a proof of fairness or unfairness.
Answer: -1/80
Quick Check
Interpret the result of 'Compare experimental and theoretical probability' in the data-generating context, including units and population limits.
Equal-sector model 2/4; observation 78/160. Interpret model chance versus observed frequency and the finite-trial limit.